PREFACE
Since the 1980¡¯s, with the rise of
Reagan and his political colleague (Neo Conservatives), there are many grave
changes in US politics even Pres. Nixon could not think about it in the 1970¡¯s.
These periods is recorded as ¡°The era of New Rising Right.¡± Before these
periods, there are plenty of liberals in America, but liberalism as a governing
philosophy is dead during some terrible defeats in the elections thanks to
GOP¡¯s reinvention. And Democrats found that their old way through the New deal
coalition is not effective any more, accepting kind of conservative ideas. So,
this webpage offers the historical review about the US presidential elections,
informing you of how American politics have changes since 1980¡¯s.
CONTENTS
¥°. 1980 Election
Vs. 
Confidence in President
Carter eroded as a result of the Iran crisis, an oil shortage and resultant
increase in gas prices, and eighteen-percent inflation. So, President Carter
faced a series of the unprecedented calamities in oval office, even he did his
best.
In 1979, inflation was soaring about
17%, with record-high interest rates (21%). Besides many of people are out of
work and many have seen their savings eaten away by inflation. Many others on
fixed incomes, especially the elderly, have watched helplessly as the cruel tax
of inflation wasted away their purchasing power. Besides, energy crisis made
American get exhausted in their daily lives.
With the regard to the foreign policy, US
people including many who voted for Mr. Carter came to wonder if US can survive
the cold war with the Soviet Union. Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan, further
threatening America¡¯s vital interests in Middle East. On November 4, 1979, a
group of Iranian students stormed the American embassy in Tehran. Protesting
the entry of the deposed Shah into the United States, they held 53 Americans
hostage. For the next twelve months, the hostage situation was an ongoing
American nightmare magnified by constant media attention.
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"The Time Is Now for Strong
Leadership." The 1980 election is considered by some
to be a realigning election because of the appearance of neo-conservatism.
Reagan, Himself was more conservative politician than any of his party and,
of course, democrats. Reagan's supporters praised him for running a campaign
of upbeat optimism, together with implications of a more militarily
aggressive foreign policy.
Reagan promised a restoration of the nation's military
strength. In the Economic issues Reagan promised restoring
economic health by implementing a supply-side economic policy. Reagan
promised a balanced budget within three years (which he said would be
"the beginning of the end of inflation"), accompanied by a 30%
reduction in taxes over those same years. With respect to the economy, Reagan
famously said, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A
depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses
his." Reagan ads¡¯ main purpose was to show
that Reagan—best known to the public as a movie actor—was also an effective
governor. A variety of attack ads reiterated the main problems of the Carter
administration: high inflation and the hostage crisis. One spot, credited to
"Democrats for Reagan," included a clip of Ted Kennedy shouting,
"No more Jimmy Carter!" during the primary campaign. |
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"Re-Elect President Carter on November 4" Carter¡¯s strategy was a futile attempt to cast his presidency
in the best possible light, and to raise concerns about his opponent.
Stressing his main achievement, the Camp David peace treaty between Israel
and Egypt, they portrayed him as a peacemaker and emphasized his military
background. As in 1976, they focused less on issues and accomplishments than
on Carter¡¯s personal qualities, calling him "a solid man in a sensitive
job." By describing the presidency as arduous and difficult, carter¡¯s
campaign asked the public to overlook some of Carter¡¯s setbacks, and implied
that Reagan, who would be the first president to begin his term past the age
of seventy, might not be up to the job. In negative ads reminiscent of Johnson¡¯s attacks on Goldwater
in 1964, Carter attempted to raise fears that Reagan would be a warmonger.
But Johnson¡¯s ads were effective because they were given credence by
Goldwater¡¯s defiant style and by statements he made during the campaign.
Reagan¡¯s cool and confident manner, exemplified by his nonchalant "there
you go again" response to Carter during their televised debate,
effectively eased voters' fears. |
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The most important event of the entire 1980
presidential campaign was the second presidential debate, which was held on the
Friday before the election (October 31). Over the course of two hours, the
entire race changed drastically, and what was considered an extremely tight
race with the President slightly ahead became a comfortable Republican victory.
Carter quickly lost ground after the last of a
series of televised debates, when Reagan ended the debate by asking Americans
whether they felt better off economically and if they felt that America was
safer. Reagan said viewers would decide who to vote for based upon their
answer. The answer, apparently, was no, because the result of the election was
painful for then, incumbent president.
Reagan won with 489 of the
electoral votes while Carter took only 49. He became the first sitting
president to lose re-election and Reagan, 69, became the oldest person to be
elected president. Carter's loss was the worst defeat for an incumbent
President since Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 by a
margin of 18%. Anderson won no electoral votes, but got 5,720,060 popular
votes.
The presidential election of
1980 was a key turning point in American politics. It signaled the new
electoral power of the suburbs and the Sun Belt; moreover, it was a watershed
ushering out the commitment to government anti-poverty programs and affirmative
action characteristic of the Great Society. It also signaled a commitment to a
hawkish foreign policy.
His landslide victory was due not only to
Carter¡¯s problems, but also to a demographic shift toward an aging population
that was growing more conservative. Carter became the first Democratic
incumbent to lose the presidency since Grover Cleveland in 1888.
¥±. 1988 Election
Vs. 
Ronald Reagan—the first president since Eisenhower to serve two full
terms—had presided over a renewed national optimism, but there were dark clouds
on the horizon as his presidency drew to a close. The federal deficit was
soaring out of control. The revelation that profits from American sales of
weapons to Iran were illegally routed to the Nicaraguan contras spawned a major
scandal.
The stage was set for one of the bitterest presidential campaigns in
recent history: Vice-President George Bush, who portrayed himself as the
rightful heir to the Reagan revolution, versus Massachusetts Governor Michael
Dukakis, who offered a traditionally Democratic vision of increased government
spending on health care, child care, education, and housing. The Bush campaign
used the brutal television advertising to portray Dukakis as an ineffective
liberal who would gut the country¡¯s defense system and let convicted murderers
out of prison. Hoping voters would dismiss the attacks as unfair, Dukakis
refused to counterattack until late in the campaign. By then it was too late.
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"Experienced Leadership for
America¡¯s Future" When he began his campaign, Bush
vowed to be a "follow-on President." Bush knew he could reap the
rewards of Reagan's successful eight-year term, including the economic
recovery and renewed nationalism. Bush campaign always said that George Bush
is the best man prepared for the next president in the U.S, reminding his
experiences in the Capital hill, CIA, china, and the UN. In
this elections, Bush¡¯s campaign successfully attacked Dukakis in a number of
ways. One of the most notable was the case of
Willie Horton--an African American convicted murderer who raped a white woman
and tortured her fiancé while on a weekend furlough from a Massachusetts
prison--was frequently mentioned by George Bush¡¯s campaign speeches. Bush stated "Don't let murders
out on vacation to terrorize innocent people...Dukakis owes the people an
explanation of why he supported this outrageous program". The
Republicans then went on to sponsor a series of television ads with pictures
of Horton and the crime scenes claiming that it was Dukakis who had let that
happen. This and other attack ads were very effective and Bush won by a large
margin. |
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"The
Best America Is Yet to Come" Having been badly defeated in
the 1984 presidential election, the Democrats were eager to find a new
approach to win the presidency. They felt more optimistic this time due to
the continuing Iran Contra scandal plus the large gains in the 1986 mid-term
election which resulted in the Democrats taking back control of the Senate
after six years of Republican rule. They enjoyed the lead by 17% point margin
until July. It was a good time for democrats. But, in the general election, Dukakis campaign was
totally the disarray and confusion. And like Mondale in 1984, Dukakis was
also attacked as the liberal out of touch with the American basic values.
Because he opposed the death penalty and the pledge of allegiance in the
school, they became the weak points for campaigning. The Only thing his campaign
succeed was notifying Dan Quayle of his unfitness and ignorance for the vice
presidency. |
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There were high issues, especially about cultural and social, on the
campaign in 1988 election. Bush gained the upper edge in these issues, pushing
Dukakis into the turbulence. Bush performed very strongly among suburban voters,
perhaps owing to his campaign themes of law and order, punctuated by his
criticisms of the Massachusetts furlough program such as Willie Horton¡¯s case.
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Bush |
Dukakis |
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Should public school
teachers be required to lead children in the pledge of allegiance? |
Yes. |
No. |
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Should free men and
women have the right to own a gun? |
Yes. |
No, It should be reconsidered. |
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Is it right to restrict the abortion? |
No, definitely. |
Yes. It is about woman¡¯s
right to choose. |
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Should society
impose the death penalty on those who commit crimes of extraordinary cruelty
and violence? |
Yes. Definitely. |
No. Even his wife could be died. |
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In 1988 a Republican won the
presidency for the fifth time in the last six tries, and for the seventh time
in the last ten. In the past six presidential elections-over a
quarter-century-Democrats have averaged approximately 43 percent of the
national popular presidential vote. Over the past forty years Democrats have
managed to exceed 50.1 percent of the popular vote only once, in 1964, in the wake
of the Kennedy assassination.
The results of 1988 US
presidential election also indicates that the Democrats did not well know the
weak points of theirs, and that they were out of step with mainstream America
when it came to basic values. The defeat in this election was more painful
because they lost in the culture wars. And it triggered dramatic changes in the
Democratic Party for the next 4 years. It was the New Democrats that become the
majority, instead of the new deal supporter, in their party.
George Bush, the incumbent
president, enjoyed approval ratings near 90 percent following America¡¯s decisive
military victory in Operation Desert Storm in 1991. Many leading Democrats,
including New York Governor Mario Cuomo, declined to run, and the party¡¯s
nomination went to Bill Clinton, governor of Arkansas. By early 1992, the U.S.
economy was faltering, and Clinton¡¯s campaign decided to focus almost
exclusively on this issue. A prominently placed sign in Clinton¡¯s campaign
headquarters read "It¡¯s the economy, stupid!" Ironically, because of
the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, which the Republicans took credit for,
the Cold War was not an important issue during the campaign, and the Democrats
were able to keep the emphasis on domestic concerns. The importance of the
economy as an issue was amplified by the surprisingly successful third-party
candidacy of billionaire Ross Perot, whose campaign concentrated on deficit
reduction.
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"For people, for a
change." In the campaigning, Clinton seems to be consistently
young in style and message compared with other candidates. Attempting to show
that his detailed economic plan was solid, many of them used statements of
facts and figure, especially stressing the fact Clinton is the governor who
balances 12 budgets. His commercials were also successful in presenting the
candidate as a centrist, with positions that couldn¡¯t easily be labeled
liberal. One ad stated that Clinton and Gore "don¡¯t think the way the
old Democratic party did," and cited the ticket¡¯s support of the death penalty
and their desire to "end welfare as we know it," the promise to
balance the budget, and cut spending—all traditionally Republican positions. |
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"Commander-in-Chief." Because he trailed in the polls for the entire campaign,
President Bush campaigns were unusually defensive in tone for those of a
sitting president. Although several ads used news footage from the Gulf War
and the fall of the Berlin Wall to illustrate his success as commander in
chief, most of Bush¡¯s commercials were attack ads portraying Clinton as a
tax-and-spend governor with little foreign-policy experience. Exploiting
controversy during the primaries about Clinton's evasion of the draft and
alleged extramarital affairs, they suggested that he was morally
untrustworthy and hypocritical. Unlike Michael Dukakis's 1988 campaign, which
disastrously delayed responding to Bush¡¯s attacks until late in the race, the
Clinton campaign made a point of responding immediately—usually on the same
day—to any accusation. At the same time, the Bush campaign had trouble
finding a strong positive message. Foreign-policy ads could only refer
vaguely to "today¡¯s unknown threat," rather than any specific
enemy. |
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The premise of Ross Perot¡¯s third-party campaign was
that the U.S. economy was in jeopardy due to its growing debt and the failure
of "trickle-down" economics, and that Perot, as a successful
businessman, was qualified to fix the problem. Although Perot's campaign was
largely self-funded, he had enough public support to be included in the
presidential debates, and he ultimately received nearly twenty percent of the
popular vote. Perot's extensive advertising campaign was largely
responsible for the relative success of his candidacy, but it also damaged
the Bush campaign by constantly asserting that the economy was headed in the
wrong direction. |
Bill Clinton was the single Democratic politician of the 1990s, most
identified with the New Democrats; his promise of welfare reform in the 1992 presidential
campaign, and its subsequent enactment, epitomized the New Democrat position,
as were his promise of a middle-class tax cut and his 1993 expansion of the
Earned Income Tax Credit for the working poor.
With the
respect to the social issues, Bill Clinton and Al Gore supported the death
penalty and became tough on crimes unlike their predecessor candidate, Mondale
and Dukakis.
Bill Clinton won election as the 42nd
President of the United States by a wide margin in the U.S. Electoral College,
despite receiving only 43 percent of the popular vote. It was the first time
since 1968 that a candidate won the White House with under 50 percent of the
popular vote.
Perot's almost 19% of the
popular vote made him the most successful third-party presidential candidate in
terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. Some
conservative analysts believe that Perot acted as a spoiler in the election,
primarily drawing votes away from Bush and allowing Clinton to win many states
with less than a majority of votes. Clearly, the confusion and disarray of
conservatives in 1992 election was the main factor to Clinton¡¯s win.
But, most important thing
was that Reagan-Bush¡¯s conservative era ended with Democrat¡¯s win since 1980¡¯s
surprising landslide defeat. Ironically, Democrats could win the election not
because they get the full support of their traditional supporter, but because
they take some of Republican positions on the economy and cultural issues.
Can you find the 1980 version¡¯s liberal?
Admittedly, the Republicans seem
to be pessimistic in today¡¯s political stage. But the 12 years, my main theme
that liberals have become the obvious minority in US politics, indicates the
political climate in US is still advantageous toward the republicans.
The fascinating thing regarding
the election held last year was the alleged conservatism of a number of
Democratic Party candidates. Some were anti-abortion, pro-gun, strongly against
illegal immigration, and desire victory in Iraq. Are they conning the voters?
We will find out soon enough. Nonetheless, they didn't run as liberals! An
affirmative action measure was even resounded rejected in the Democrat
dominated state of Michigan.
Now, we can¡¯t see anyone in the
Democrat who supports ¡°the new deal¡± and ¡°the great society¡±. And some
candidates, like Obama, say the toughness on crime stronger than the republican
do. Many think that US politics have become more conservative as most
politicians could not imagine in the 1970¡¯s So, The influence of the 1980~1992
years have been still remained strongly in America¡¯s political arena.
References
•
Micklethwait,
John and Wooldridge, Adrian. The Right Nation: Conservative Power in
America. Penguin Press, (2004)
•
Morris, Dick. Power
Plays: Win or Lose--How History's Great Political Leaders Play the Game. Harper Paperbacks (2003)
•
Phillips, Kevin.
American Dynasty: aristocracy, fortune, and the politics of deceit in the
house of Bush. New York: Penguin Books, (2004)
•
Busch, Andrew E.
Reagan's Victory: The Presidential Election of 1980 and the Rise of the
Right, (2005) online
review by Michael Barone
Links
Prof. Florig¡¯s
Articles on U.S. politics
American
Presidents: Life Portraits